Rebound in New York

[Joe Marconi]

A ride to the Mall with my wife today (yes, I went to the Mall, got a problem?) gave me assurance that things are really getting back to normal. The stores were full, the roads were packed and expect for the masks people are wearing, you would think it's just another ordinary summer weekend! 

 

[Alex]

It's nice to see things starting to come back to some level of normal life! I went to Home Depot and it was busy as usual for this time of year, which was good to see.

[JimO]

We have been trailing NY by 1-2 weeks with everything concerning the pandemic and our indoor malls still remain closed at this time. Stores that are accessible from the street have recently reopened which does make me feel like we are getting back to normal as Joe indicated. My location is surrounded by corporate offices which also remain closed. I have been told that when they do get a green light to open that most will only allow 10% of employees to return per month. Most or all have also announced that it is ok to not return to the office and continue working from home. We may not see 50% occupancy at the corporate offices until December or later which is a concern. 

[autoguy]

On 6/21/2020 at 7:52 PM, JimO said:

indoor malls still remain closed at this time

In NY malls are staying closed from what it sounds like and they'll have to put in HEPA filtration systems. Most of these malls have anchor stores and they can open though if they have an outdoor entrance. 

[Joe Marconi]

I wonder what the long term effects will be wtih some businesses.  Many resturants are still not operating at full customer capacity and many other businesses are taking a hit. While there are many positive economic signs, will those businesses that are still impacted by the virus have an effect on the entire economy?

I suggest a very conserative strategy at this point, build a cash reserve, pay down debt as best you can and do not incurr new debt.  If nothing bad happens, you will still be in a better economic position. 

Your thoughts? 

 

[JimO]

2 hours ago, Joe Marconi said:

I wonder what the long term effects will be wtih some businesses.  Many resturants are still not operating at full customer capacity and many other businesses are taking a hit. While there are many positive economic signs, will those businesses that are still impacted by the virus have an effect on the entire economy?

I suggest a very conserative strategy at this point, build a cash reserve, pay down debt as best you can and do not incurr new debt.  If nothing bad happens, you will still be in a better economic position. 

Your thoughts? 

 

I share Joe’s concern and believe that we will still continue to feel the economic turmoil that Covid has caused. To many variables in play right now with so many marginalized businesses that have tried to hang on but seem to be slowly dropping off and closing. I accept the fact that in many cases Covid did not directly cause the failure but in most cases it was the tipping point. 

[Joe Marconi]

As of the end of July, we are busy, and hitting the numbers we did last year. In fact, we ended June and July better than last year. I don't think we can make up for the losses we had in Feb, Mar and April for 2020, but all that really matters is realigning our goals and moving forward. 

From what I hear from on the streets, most repair shops are doing fine, collision shops are doing better and it's mixed with new car dealers.  

Traffic also seems to be almost back to normal.  

If we can ahead of this virus, we will be ok. As I stated before, my only fear is that many main street businesses such as restaurants, are still struggling along with some major industries, such as hotels and airlines.  

I would continue to be cautious, keep building up your reserve cash and be very careful how you spend your money in the near future.

 

[autoguy]

Malls and shopping in general for the holidays is busy, we'll see what happens after xmas. Has anyone been to the post office lately? They are slammed and packages are arriving late. Big shift to online and shipping.

[Joe Marconi]

Business is steady for us, but not like it should be.  Customers are understanding about their car care needs, but many are reluctant to spend. Probably due to the uncertainty of COVID and the impact is had on the local economy and life in general. I am cautiously optimistic about 2021, but we will need to work hard to do all we can to maintain and improve business.

 

[dfrisby]

Summer was great for me in Minnesota, but so so going into winter. We will see what 2021 brings, but I'm trying to be prepared for an almost guaranteed downturn in the economy going forward.  I'm probably insane, but I'm adding equipment to my shop for fabrication work vs. repair equipment. Trying to expand into other markets as my repair work seems to be pretty stagnant even with added equipment such as the alignment machine and another lift.

We shall see what happens going forward, but it's my boat and I'll either float it or go down with it. 

[Joe Marconi]

We are still down about 20% from normal for this time of the year. It's not that we have lost customers, they are just not putting on the miles that they used to.  2021 will be a better year. I think we will see a surge by late spring and it will carry through the end of the year.