Will the EV cars take away business? Let's rethink this

[Joe Marconi]

Back in the 1990s, some shop owner's feared that fuel injection, 100 mile spark plugs, the elimination of the Distributor cap, rotor and extended fluid services would be our demise. But, that didn't happen. 

Now I hear many in our industry state that "There is no needed work on an electric vehicle, they are problem free." 

My opinion, let's not fall into thinking that the EV car will run forever of even for years without needed service.  The EV still has tires, suspension, brakes, and a whole new area of opportunities. It will be different, but there will be a need for the Automotive Technicians and for repair shops.

Your thoughts? 

 

 

[xrac]

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[Joe Marconi]

11 hours ago, xrac said:

Joe, EV will have no impact on my business that will effect me.  Where I live is one of the last places to adopt new technology and by the time it makes an impact I would be in my 80's if I live that long.

 

Frank, first of all...I wish you a long a happy life.  For many around the country, your situation is accurate.  The internal combustion engine will be here for a while yet. EV's will make an impact, but it will slow and incremental. 

[bantar]

First, let me say that I think EVs are here to stay, but just as a hammer isn't the only tool in your tool box, neither will EV's be alone.  

Adoption Barriers:   Amongst the many single family homes here are some super sized apartment complexes... lots of them.   Living in an apartment severely dampens the convenience of having a personal plug for your EV.    You will have to hook up, charge and leave so that the next person can arrive for charging.    If all spots are full, you must wait for one to free up.    Most apartments do not have EV chargers and if they added one, it would need to be a profit center as apartments are experts at expense reduction.    There are some apartments here with garages, so that helps.      I think this inconvenience will continue to be an impediment to adoption.    How many of us have been so late for a meeting that we can't spare the few minutes to pump gas into our tank?  Imagine forgetting to charge and needing one now.    Another factor is the vitrol that I hear about EV's from everyday customers.   It's surprisingly loud.   Then, you have your EX-Tesla drivers with not so great stories of their adventure.    Contrast that with Prius drivers and those guys are generally happy and keep their cars quite a long while.

IMO, I think the manufacturers with the most ICE engines remaining will mop up the majority of the new car sales.  I think the CEOs are building for a perceived market vs an actual one.   Hype always precedes adoption.  But, hey, I'm not a visionary.

Personally, I have no desire roasting in a spontaneous Lithium fire, so it's never in my future.   I'd be open to other alternatives (fuel cell, propane, alkaline batteries, etc) if it made sense and was peppy.

Profitability:  I would say that the majority of the Tesla drivers that I see at our shop (for State Inspections) are cheapskates.   They think that they've solved the maintenance and gas mileage conundrum.   Add to that, a very small set of early adopters (not cheap folks).   I also see their cheapness in their driving habits.   They have a super-accelerator-machine, but pushing on the pedal uses their precious battery, so I zoom past all but 1-in-a-1000.   These guys aren't using their brakes much.   I see more tire wear from alignment issues than driving wear. (For reasons noted here are currently refusing Tesla alignments... we've only done 1).  Most of the Teslas are low mileage vehicles.  The highest I've seen is 70.3K miles on a used 2016 Tesla S.  93% < 40K miles in all.    I bring this up, because I think it foretells the types of customers that you are likely attracting.

 

[Joe Marconi]

41 minutes ago, bantar said:

First, let me say that I think EVs are here to stay, but just as a hammer isn't the only tool in your tool box, neither will EV's be alone.  

Adoption Barriers:   Amongst the many single family homes here are some super sized apartment complexes... lots of them.   Living in an apartment severely dampens the convenience of having a personal plug for your EV.    You will have to hook up, charge and leave so that the next person can arrive for charging.    If all spots are full, you must wait for one to free up.    Most apartments do not have EV chargers and if they added one, it would need to be a profit center as apartments are experts at expense reduction.    There are some apartments here with garages, so that helps.      I think this inconvenience will continue to be an impediment to adoption.    How many of us have been so late for a meeting that we can't spare the few minutes to pump gas into our tank?  Imagine forgetting to charge and needing one now.    Another factor is the vitrol that I hear about EV's from everyday customers.   It's surprisingly loud.   Then, you have your EX-Tesla drivers with not so great stories of their adventure.    Contrast that with Prius drivers and those guys are generally happy and keep their cars quite a long while.

IMO, I think the manufacturers with the most ICE engines remaining will mop up the majority of the new car sales.  I think the CEOs are building for a perceived market vs an actual one.   Hype always precedes adoption.  But, hey, I'm not a visionary.

Personally, I have no desire roasting in a spontaneous Lithium fire, so it's never in my future.   I'd be open to other alternatives (fuel cell, propane, alkaline batteries, etc) if it made sense and was peppy.

Profitability:  I would say that the majority of the Tesla drivers that I see at our shop (for State Inspections) are cheapskates.   They think that they've solved the maintenance and gas mileage conundrum.   Add to that, a very small set of early adopters (not cheap folks).   I also see their cheapness in their driving habits.   They have a super-accelerator-machine, but pushing on the pedal uses their precious battery, so I zoom past all but 1-in-a-1000.   These guys aren't using their brakes much.   I see more tire wear from alignment issues than driving wear. (For reasons noted here are currently refusing Tesla alignments... we've only done 1).  Most of the Teslas are low mileage vehicles.  The highest I've seen is 70.3K miles on a used 2016 Tesla S.  93% < 40K miles in all.    I bring this up, because I think it foretells the types of customers that you are likely attracting.

 

Wow! You did your homework. Great insight on this topic! 

[xrac]

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[Joe Marconi]

12 hours ago, xrac said:

I belong to a BNI networking chapter and we have an electrical contractor in our chapter.  He has been talking about install EV charging lately.  Seems that business people are coming to our town from larger cities trying to drive EVs.  They are finding few inconvenient charging options in our town.  He is being contracted to install EV charging stations for a few companies.  Now I know what this guy charges and he is not cheap.  I would make a guess that most of what he does will cost $3000-$5000 at least.  That is if the place where it needs to be installed has a large enough service panel.  This could get real expensive depending on where it has to be located and what capacity is available.  I do think politiians and people ever think abou the cost they will incurr to install a charging station at home, at work, at the vacation home, etc.  Way more cost in these EV's than purchase price and kilowatt hours.    

I think there are a lot of unknows at this point. There are still no specific standards either.  And what about city dwellers?  In NYC you could have a hundred families in one apartment building.  If you live in an apartment, how do you charge your EV?  I think all the issues will be figured out, but not without a price to someone, and if the government takes over, it will be through taxes. Or, will innovation jump over the EV and invent something else? 

[bantar]

20 minutes ago, Joe Marconi said:

Or, will innovation jump over the EV and invent something else?

Again, I don't know what the future will bring, but it is way easier to retrofit 10,000's of gas stations with hydrogen tanks than it would be to add charging stations. Fuel cells could win the infrastructure game easily, if they become viable. How many states have enough excess power to absorb all EV?  Here's a real tell... how many states believe that all EV is here and are building NEW power plants in anticipation?   I think that infrastructure is the biggest hurdle for all EV adoption.   However, as you mentioned, the wildcard is if the government says I don't care how much it costs and uses our taxes unwisely.  Lastly, as EV adoption climbs, gasoline consumption drops and we will see very affordable gas, if the government does not first bankrupt the fuel stations.  The free market will keep the playing field level.   The government is the disruptor.   But every time they step in to help us save (fuel economy, toilet flushes), it's a false economy.

 

13 hours ago, xrac said:

That is if the place where it needs to be installed has a large enough service panel. 

You piqued my curiosity and I took a look at the charging options for EV.   What I found is that your charging rate is a function of your supply amperage (makes sense).  If you look at their charging tables, it shows various options from 11 miles per hour of charging up to 44 miles per hour of charging.  With a 110V plug you can get about 100 mile charge overnight.   Not exactly terrible if you are a local commuter.   Now, I peeked at my 2 service panels and they are both loaded up full.   My costs to add a higher amperage charger would be higher than others that have excess breaker power.   To get to the 44 mile charging, you need a 100A breaker and probably draw 60-80A I'd guess.   I think we're really seeing the Tesla as a 2nd car for local commutes and not the primary vehicle for the family.    And, if this is the case, then what are my service opportunities on a low-miles-driven-commuter car?

[Joe Marconi]

I remember reading the the 1980s that hydrogen cars, not EVs, will dominate the future of the automobile. What happened to change that.? There are companies doing research into hydrogen cars, but it's funny how the EV took over. 

And, the other funny thing is when people say we need to get away from a non-reusable energy source (oil).  I get that (to a degree), HOWEVER, I would bet that not many people understand all the non-reusable resources needed to build the batteries for the EV! 

 

[xrac]

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[bantar]

I'm not intending for this to be a political statement, but I do want to touch on the political news of the moment as it pertains to electric cars.   I previously said: 

On 2/7/2022 at 9:57 AM, bantar said:

Another factor is the vitrol that I hear about EV's from everyday customers.   It's surprisingly loud.  

Listening to the news over the past few days as the calls for lower gas prices getting louder, we hear that you should be driving an electric car.   Some comments are overt and some are subtle, "as we transition to 100% renewable energy sources".    Everyday Americans are getting hammered by these high gas prices right this minute.   Telling them to buy a new car only worsens their financial picture.   So, are the politicians encouraging our fellow American's to be more accepting of Electric Cars or are they discouraging them?

“The top 9 most terrifying words in the English Language are: I'm from the government, and I'm here to help.”   Personally, I think they have just breathed new life into the ICE cars.   I believe that this intervention is actually driving a wedge in the electric car vs ICE debate that wasn't really there (or as loud) before.

Even Elon Musk recently called for gas prices to be lowered.  In the past, he spoke negatively of gas prices being artificially low, (IMO) as a sales pitch for EVs.   I wonder what he's really worried about?  

 

[Joe Marconi]

I don't think we are going to stop the EV from becoming "somewhat" mainstream. But there are a few things that many people don't fully understand.

For one, while the EV has no emissions rolling down the road, BUT how it got to be an EV is a process that does take a toll on the environment. We talk about fossil fuels and renewables; Well strip mining entire mountains for the elements needed to manufacture the batteries is NOT following a clean, renewable energy-source protocol.  

Another factor is the infrastructure.  I was born and raised in the Bronx, NYC.  The apartment buildings in the City many have hundreds of families, all who own a car, maybe two cars. How are they going to charge their cars?  Throw an electric cord out the window from from 12th floor and hook up their car.  I know a lot of this will be figured out, but it will take time.

I don't know where the industry is ultimately going, the more we know and stay engaged, the better we will be, 

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[Joe Marconi]

15 hours ago, Transmission Repair said:

Remember the "Buggy Whip Story"?  Well, that's the trap a lot of fatalistic-thinking people think about conventional ICE vehicles.  I'm in total agreement with what Joe said.   I couldn't have said it better.  Our industry WILL ADAPT to the changing technologies.  That's what we've always done, right?

And oh, by the way, the buggy whip business is alive and well.  They just adapted.  https://www.buggywhip.com/

Great example of adapting, and not dying. 

[RYAN B]

I had a 2016 Tesla X model with 26,000 miles in for inspection this week. It needed 2 front tires and a third brake light which was mounted in the spoiler. I choose not to get involved with the third brake light because it was glued into the spoiler and the Tesla parts guy told me I would have to replace the spoiler cap and repaint it, which didn't scare me but I was scared that when it was done it may set a code or a warning from disconnecting the brake light that I would not be able to clear.  But my customer spent 860.00 to inspect and put 2 tires on and they were on there way to drop their car off at the Tesla dealer for 2 weeks and over 2000.00 to fix the light. They were regretting purchasing this car! When these Electric cars hit mainstream there will be as many or more problems as the cars we are dealing with now!

[Joe Marconi]

It will be real interesting to see what happens to these EV's as they age.  We already know that services and repairs can be appreciably more. 

[JimO]

One of my customers recently came in with his new Tesla to explain why I have not seen him at my gas island. Knowing that this particular customer owns a grocery store in Manhattan I asked where he recharges his Tesla when he is at work. He told me that he arrives at work very early in the morning and manages to secure street parking in front of his store. He runs an extension cord out to his new Tesla and plugs it in. I right away questioned him about the safety of an extension cord going across a busy Manhattan sidewalk. He had any answer for that concern, he covers the extension cord with a large commercial entrance mat to prevent pedestrians from falling on the cord. My next question was how long does it take to recharge his Tesla using a regular extension cord? He proudly stated that using this method it recharges at a rate of 1% capacity per hour. I asked if there are any fast chargers that he has access to and although there are some available they have long waits and he needs to be at work. He went on to tell me that some of his customers that live in the city have also purchased Tesla’s and love them which prompted me to ask where they recharge their cars. He told me that most of the people he knows that own a Tesla and live in Manhattan drive over to New Jersey on the weekend and recharge their cars at the Tesla dealer in Paramus, NJ which happens to be 10 minutes from my location. So these intrepid Tesla owners will plan their weekend to include a trip from Manhattan to New Jersey via the George Washington Bridge ($16.00) to the Tesla Dealer in Paramus (45 to 120 minutes depending on traffic) sit in the Tesla lot for 45 minutes for a “fast charge” and when done drive back to Manhattan (another 45-120 minutes). I need to know what medication these Tesla owners are taking that gives them enough patience to do this weekly and still tell people that they LOVE their Tesla. I have owned a gas station for 50 years and the average gas customer will honk their horn if a gas attendant fails to appear at their car window within 30 seconds of arrival on the gas island. New Jersey holds the distinction of being the only state that is Full Serve only, Self Serve is against the law here. 

The gasoline and diesel price at the pump includes a Federal and State Motor Fuels Tax which in theory pays for repairs, maintenance and construction of roads, bridges and tunnels. The Motor Fuels Tax is different from state to state but in New Jersey the total Motor Fuels Tax is currently 61 cents a gallon for gasoline and 74 cents a gallon for diesel. So.... my question is: If every ICE vehicle was replaced with an EV tomorrow, where will the government get the money to build and maintain roads, bridges and tunnels that they currently get from Motor Fuels Tax? 

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[Joe Marconi]

13 hours ago, JimO said:

One of my customers recently came in with his new Tesla to explain why I have not seen him at my gas island. Knowing that this particular customer owns a grocery store in Manhattan I asked where he recharges his Tesla when he is at work. He told me that he arrives at work very early in the morning and manages to secure street parking in front of his store. He runs an extension cord out to his new Tesla and plugs it in. I right away questioned him about the safety of an extension cord going across a busy Manhattan sidewalk. He had any answer for that concern, he covers the extension cord with a large commercial entrance mat to prevent pedestrians from falling on the cord. My next question was how long does it take to recharge his Tesla using a regular extension cord? He proudly stated that using this method it recharges at a rate of 1% capacity per hour. I asked if there are any fast chargers that he has access to and although there are some available they have long waits and he needs to be at work. He went on to tell me that some of his customers that live in the city have also purchased Tesla’s and love them which prompted me to ask where they recharge their cars. He told me that most of the people he knows that own a Tesla and live in Manhattan drive over to New Jersey on the weekend and recharge their cars at the Tesla dealer in Paramus, NJ which happens to be 10 minutes from my location. So these intrepid Tesla owners will plan their weekend to include a trip from Manhattan to New Jersey via the George Washington Bridge ($16.00) to the Tesla Dealer in Paramus (45 to 120 minutes depending on traffic) sit in the Tesla lot for 45 minutes for a “fast charge” and when done drive back to Manhattan (another 45-120 minutes). I need to know what medication these Tesla owners are taking that gives them enough patience to do this weekly and still tell people that they LOVE their Tesla. I have owned a gas station for 50 years and the average gas customer will honk their horn if a gas attendant fails to appear at their car window within 30 seconds of arrival on the gas island. New Jersey holds the distinction of being the only state that is Full Serve only, Self Serve is against the law here. 

The gasoline and diesel price at the pump includes a Federal and State Motor Fuels Tax which in theory pays for repairs, maintenance and construction of roads, bridges and tunnels. The Motor Fuels Tax is different from state to state but in New Jersey the total Motor Fuels Tax is currently 61 cents a gallon for gasoline and 74 cents a gallon for diesel. So.... my question is: If every ICE vehicle was replaced with an EV tomorrow, where will the government get the money to build and maintain roads, bridges and tunnels that they currently get from Motor Fuels Tax? 

JimO, this is an amazing situation, and one that I mentioned in this thread, but didn't actually knew it was real: People are using electric cords to charge their EV? 

The reality is car makers and other major corporations are investing billions in EVs and Battery Plants, I am just not sure how and when we are going to figure out the infrastructure issue. And, I was brought up in the Gas Station business. People want to fuel up fast and easy! 

What great information, and what a discussion! 

[bantar]

15 hours ago, JimO said:

 I need to know what medication these Tesla owners are taking that gives them enough patience to do this weekly and still tell people that they LOVE their Tesla. I have owned a gas station for 50 years and the average gas customer will honk their horn if a gas attendant fails to appear at their car window within 30 seconds of arrival on the gas island.

You've described a typical early-adopter / fanboy of whatever technology / new thing exists.   They want it and will make it work no matter what.    To them, they get to go on a Sunday drive in their newest and funnest toy!   Life is grand!    The mainstream wants a nice car and convenience and I heard that they might honk if inconvenienced!   😁

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[Joe Marconi]

I think it would work, but as you said, it would add the cost of the car.  I imagine the engineers already thought of it.  It is amazing how they came out the EV without an infrastructure to support it. I wonder how the world was when the first internal combustions engines came of age? 

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[Joe Marconi]

That is amazing! Fun to watch. His first ride on an EV vehicle! 

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[Joe Marconi]

52 minutes ago, Transmission Repair said:

I have found so many good posts in this community.  I love the fact that is this site categorizes different subject matter.  Keep up the good work, Joe!

J. Larry Bloodworth /[email protected] / 801-885-2227

Thank you for the kind words. I appreciate your great contributions! That's what makes ASO a great resource! 

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[Joe Marconi]

58 minutes ago, Transmission Repair said:

It's comfortable for me, Joe.

I was banned from 2 other technical automotive sites for talking too much business. 😞

I found a "home".  Thanks for all you do!

Banned? Their loss, our gain! 

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[Joe Marconi]

5 minutes ago, Transmission Repair said:

I didn't ever start making any real money until I started hiring and/or attending seminars about sales, business, and management.  Till then, as Michael Gerber so famously said, I was working IN my business and not ON my business.  It took me a while to understand that the technically-only automotive sites are technicians working IN their business.  Many members were 1 or 2 man operations.  I just flat picked the wrong audience.  Oh, well... we all learn something new everyday.

Wow, my situation was very similar. For the first 10 years in business I struggled financially. I had a great business, booked out for two weeks, but no profit. I started attending classes in finance, sales and marketing, and it changed my life. I too read the E Myth by Michael, and I know he was talking directly to me.

Once I did figure it out, things got better quickly.  I was a tech turned business owner. And it all worked out, but not without a lot of challenges, struggles and set backs. But in the end, no regrets. 

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[Hands On]

I bought a Nissan Leaf. I love my little EV and do not miss the stops at the gas station. I am anxious to see what my first vehicle repair expense will be. 6 months in now, I have had to add washer fluid.  I installed a charger at my shop, so I drive to work and plug in. I can show up at 5% battery left and leave at 100% by the end of the day no problem. I let me service writer use it to drop off customers and run errands. I am saving over $600 a month in fuel, more then enough to cover the 3 year note on the car. It is faster then most ICE on the road, I love to floor it at every light. If the battery hits 50% capacity in 10 years I will still make my daily commute with out an issue. With the ~140 mile range, I have been able to leave the shop, run errands into the mountains, across towns, head home, and still have battery enough to make it back to work.

 

Stage 1 chargers are the 110 volt plug in, takes 12 to 16 hours to take my car from 5% to 100%  <-- I have this at home for emergencies.

Stage 2 chargers, the 220 volt consumer grade. Takes maybe 5-6 hours to go from 5% to 100%  <------- This is what I had installed at the shop, you can also find a few free ones in my area. There are free ones at the Stanley Hotel in Estes Park.

Stage 3 Super Chargers. These are the big boys that can charge you from 5% to 85% in 15 minutes. Charging past 85% on a super charger is not advised, and that last 15% can take longer then the first 80% These are what you use for road trips/ long day trips. They cost money, and sometimes have a wait time.

I think the most important thing is going to be technicians that are good with electronics. I imagine a good chunk of the repairs on these vehicles will have to do with the electronics.

I bought my leaf so we can play with it and learn what we might make money on. I have not put it up yet, but I want to see what fluids it may use, see what brake service looks like, ect. I figured best way to find the money in an EV is to own one for shop education purposes. Now I want another.

 

The only thing I think EV is not ready for yet is Towing.  Someone mentioned EV vs ICE and carbon footprint.  There are some studies out there that look at how long you have to drive the EV before you reach parity on carbon footprint to an ICE. Opinions vary between as little as 8k miles, to as much as 93k miles. Some of how long the parity takes is based on how your electricity is generated. My power at home comes from a hydro plant, so if I charge at home, I reach carbon parity very fast. I think my shop is fed from natural gas power, so that will take longer.  The real benefit shows once you reach and drive past that parity. Once the initial production carbon footprint is offset by the zero emissions of the car itself, your now lowering the over all carbon footprint of the vehicle over  the lifespan of the vehicle.

 

Solid state batteries are on the way which will help increase capacity and lower production carbon footprint. BMW sources components for their EV in a more humane way. For example, they use a brushed motor, instead of brush-less, which lowers the amount of (I think cobalt) that they need.

 

Regarding the original topic. I think, assuming your client list converts to EV at any significant rate, you will need 3 EV customers to replace one ICE customer. Just a rough guess, but I am assuming that EV will require about 33% of the work of an ICE.

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[RYAN B]

I don't know, we have about 30+ customers that have EV cars.  The vast majority are the complainers that don't want to spend money on there cars. The Teslas have been a good source of income, everything for them is SUPER expensive the eat tires up, we have seen third brake lights go bad, and some of those repairs are over $2000, and I am talking about cars that have less than 30000 miles.  One other piece of Information, most of these people say they would not buy another one! EV is coming, But the infastructure will not support it!    

[Joe Marconi]

On 10/5/2022 at 7:45 AM, RYAN B said:

I don't know, we have about 30+ customers that have EV cars.  The vast majority are the complainers that don't want to spend money on there cars. The Teslas have been a good source of income, everything for them is SUPER expensive the eat tires up, we have seen third brake lights go bad, and some of those repairs are over $2000, and I am talking about cars that have less than 30000 miles.  One other piece of Information, most of these people say they would not buy another one! EV is coming, But the infastructure will not support it!    

This is fascinating information.  What types of patterns do you see in terms of repairs and services on Teslas? 

[RYAN B]

On the Teslas we have been seeing tires wearing out around 18000 to 20000 and they are special compounds, $$$.  We have seen third brake lights go bad when they are in the spoilers. Most people who buy these cars think they are Never going to need repairs. I had a customer bring me in a 22 Lucid to inspect it the other day, I asked them where are you going to take if something breaks?  They told me "What's going to break"?  There are no service facilities on the East Coast, People just don't think this stuff out. I had a customer broke down up the street, with her new Tesla, she kept calling us wondering why we couldn't help her, Tesla left her up there for like 4 1/2 hours and people with means don't like to wait!   

[Joe Marconi]

1 hour ago, RYAN B said:

On the Teslas we have been seeing tires wearing out around 18000 to 20000 and they are special compounds, $$$.  We have seen third brake lights go bad when they are in the spoilers. Most people who buy these cars think they are Never going to need repairs. I had a customer bring me in a 22 Lucid to inspect it the other day, I asked them where are you going to take if something breaks?  They told me "What's going to break"?  There are no service facilities on the East Coast, People just don't think this stuff out. I had a customer broke down up the street, with her new Tesla, she kept calling us wondering why we couldn't help her, Tesla left her up there for like 4 1/2 hours and people with means don't like to wait!   

I am really enjoying your posts!  And I really hate hearing, "It's an EV; what's going to break? It doesn't need ANY servicing or repairs!"   The public will learn the truth about EV eventually. Thanks for the info! 

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[Joe Marconi]

13 hours ago, Transmission Repair said:

This topic has been beat to death.  Let's just agree to take the "Wait and see." position, Okay?

HA! I know, it appears that everyone has this on their minds; and not just people from the auto industry.  At dinner with friends, I get bombarded with questions about Evs. But, I do agree....Please, let us wait and see.