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Will the EV cars take away business? Let's rethink this

Joe Marconi
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bantar
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First, let me say that I think EVs are here to stay, but just as a hammer isn't the only tool in your tool box, neither will EV's be alone.   Adoption Barriers:   Amongst the many single family h

xrac
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bantar Community Regular

bantar

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First, let me say that I think EVs are here to stay, but just as a hammer isn't the only tool in your tool box, neither will EV's be alone.  

Adoption Barriers:   Amongst the many single family homes here are some super sized apartment complexes... lots of them.   Living in an apartment severely dampens the convenience of having a personal plug for your EV.    You will have to hook up, charge and leave so that the next person can arrive for charging.    If all spots are full, you must wait for one to free up.    Most apartments do not have EV chargers and if they added one, it would need to be a profit center as apartments are experts at expense reduction.    There are some apartments here with garages, so that helps.      I think this inconvenience will continue to be an impediment to adoption.    How many of us have been so late for a meeting that we can't spare the few minutes to pump gas into our tank?  Imagine forgetting to charge and needing one now.    Another factor is the vitrol that I hear about EV's from everyday customers.   It's surprisingly loud.   Then, you have your EX-Tesla drivers with not so great stories of their adventure.    Contrast that with Prius drivers and those guys are generally happy and keep their cars quite a long while.

IMO, I think the manufacturers with the most ICE engines remaining will mop up the majority of the new car sales.  I think the CEOs are building for a perceived market vs an actual one.   Hype always precedes adoption.  But, hey, I'm not a visionary.

Personally, I have no desire roasting in a spontaneous Lithium fire, so it's never in my future.   I'd be open to other alternatives (fuel cell, propane, alkaline batteries, etc) if it made sense and was peppy.

Profitability:  I would say that the majority of the Tesla drivers that I see at our shop (for State Inspections) are cheapskates.   They think that they've solved the maintenance and gas mileage conundrum.   Add to that, a very small set of early adopters (not cheap folks).   I also see their cheapness in their driving habits.   They have a super-accelerator-machine, but pushing on the pedal uses their precious battery, so I zoom past all but 1-in-a-1000.   These guys aren't using their brakes much.   I see more tire wear from alignment issues than driving wear. (For reasons noted here are currently refusing Tesla alignments... we've only done 1).  Most of the Teslas are low mileage vehicles.  The highest I've seen is 70.3K miles on a used 2016 Tesla S.  93% < 40K miles in all.    I bring this up, because I think it foretells the types of customers that you are likely attracting.

 

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bantar Community Regular

bantar

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20 minutes ago, Joe Marconi said:

Or, will innovation jump over the EV and invent something else?

Again, I don't know what the future will bring, but it is way easier to retrofit 10,000's of gas stations with hydrogen tanks than it would be to add charging stations. Fuel cells could win the infrastructure game easily, if they become viable. How many states have enough excess power to absorb all EV?  Here's a real tell... how many states believe that all EV is here and are building NEW power plants in anticipation?   I think that infrastructure is the biggest hurdle for all EV adoption.   However, as you mentioned, the wildcard is if the government says I don't care how much it costs and uses our taxes unwisely.  Lastly, as EV adoption climbs, gasoline consumption drops and we will see very affordable gas, if the government does not first bankrupt the fuel stations.  The free market will keep the playing field level.   The government is the disruptor.   But every time they step in to help us save (fuel economy, toilet flushes), it's a false economy.

 

13 hours ago, xrac said:

That is if the place where it needs to be installed has a large enough service panel. 

You piqued my curiosity and I took a look at the charging options for EV.   What I found is that your charging rate is a function of your supply amperage (makes sense).  If you look at their charging tables, it shows various options from 11 miles per hour of charging up to 44 miles per hour of charging.  With a 110V plug you can get about 100 mile charge overnight.   Not exactly terrible if you are a local commuter.   Now, I peeked at my 2 service panels and they are both loaded up full.   My costs to add a higher amperage charger would be higher than others that have excess breaker power.   To get to the 44 mile charging, you need a 100A breaker and probably draw 60-80A I'd guess.   I think we're really seeing the Tesla as a 2nd car for local commutes and not the primary vehicle for the family.    And, if this is the case, then what are my service opportunities on a low-miles-driven-commuter car?

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bantar Community Regular

bantar

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I'm not intending for this to be a political statement, but I do want to touch on the political news of the moment as it pertains to electric cars.   I previously said: 

On 2/7/2022 at 9:57 AM, bantar said:

Another factor is the vitrol that I hear about EV's from everyday customers.   It's surprisingly loud.  

Listening to the news over the past few days as the calls for lower gas prices getting louder, we hear that you should be driving an electric car.   Some comments are overt and some are subtle, "as we transition to 100% renewable energy sources".    Everyday Americans are getting hammered by these high gas prices right this minute.   Telling them to buy a new car only worsens their financial picture.   So, are the politicians encouraging our fellow American's to be more accepting of Electric Cars or are they discouraging them?

“The top 9 most terrifying words in the English Language are: I'm from the government, and I'm here to help.”   Personally, I think they have just breathed new life into the ICE cars.   I believe that this intervention is actually driving a wedge in the electric car vs ICE debate that wasn't really there (or as loud) before.

Even Elon Musk recently called for gas prices to be lowered.  In the past, he spoke negatively of gas prices being artificially low, (IMO) as a sales pitch for EVs.   I wonder what he's really worried about?  

 

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RYAN B Apprentice

RYAN B

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I had a 2016 Tesla X model with 26,000 miles in for inspection this week. It needed 2 front tires and a third brake light which was mounted in the spoiler. I choose not to get involved with the third brake light because it was glued into the spoiler and the Tesla parts guy told me I would have to replace the spoiler cap and repaint it, which didn't scare me but I was scared that when it was done it may set a code or a warning from disconnecting the brake light that I would not be able to clear.  But my customer spent 860.00 to inspect and put 2 tires on and they were on there way to drop their car off at the Tesla dealer for 2 weeks and over 2000.00 to fix the light. They were regretting purchasing this car! When these Electric cars hit mainstream there will be as many or more problems as the cars we are dealing with now!

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JimO Collaborator

JimO

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One of my customers recently came in with his new Tesla to explain why I have not seen him at my gas island. Knowing that this particular customer owns a grocery store in Manhattan I asked where he recharges his Tesla when he is at work. He told me that he arrives at work very early in the morning and manages to secure street parking in front of his store. He runs an extension cord out to his new Tesla and plugs it in. I right away questioned him about the safety of an extension cord going across a busy Manhattan sidewalk. He had any answer for that concern, he covers the extension cord with a large commercial entrance mat to prevent pedestrians from falling on the cord. My next question was how long does it take to recharge his Tesla using a regular extension cord? He proudly stated that using this method it recharges at a rate of 1% capacity per hour. I asked if there are any fast chargers that he has access to and although there are some available they have long waits and he needs to be at work. He went on to tell me that some of his customers that live in the city have also purchased Tesla’s and love them which prompted me to ask where they recharge their cars. He told me that most of the people he knows that own a Tesla and live in Manhattan drive over to New Jersey on the weekend and recharge their cars at the Tesla dealer in Paramus, NJ which happens to be 10 minutes from my location. So these intrepid Tesla owners will plan their weekend to include a trip from Manhattan to New Jersey via the George Washington Bridge ($16.00) to the Tesla Dealer in Paramus (45 to 120 minutes depending on traffic) sit in the Tesla lot for 45 minutes for a “fast charge” and when done drive back to Manhattan (another 45-120 minutes). I need to know what medication these Tesla owners are taking that gives them enough patience to do this weekly and still tell people that they LOVE their Tesla. I have owned a gas station for 50 years and the average gas customer will honk their horn if a gas attendant fails to appear at their car window within 30 seconds of arrival on the gas island. New Jersey holds the distinction of being the only state that is Full Serve only, Self Serve is against the law here. 

The gasoline and diesel price at the pump includes a Federal and State Motor Fuels Tax which in theory pays for repairs, maintenance and construction of roads, bridges and tunnels. The Motor Fuels Tax is different from state to state but in New Jersey the total Motor Fuels Tax is currently 61 cents a gallon for gasoline and 74 cents a gallon for diesel. So.... my question is: If every ICE vehicle was replaced with an EV tomorrow, where will the government get the money to build and maintain roads, bridges and tunnels that they currently get from Motor Fuels Tax? 

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bantar Community Regular

bantar

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15 hours ago, JimO said:

 I need to know what medication these Tesla owners are taking that gives them enough patience to do this weekly and still tell people that they LOVE their Tesla. I have owned a gas station for 50 years and the average gas customer will honk their horn if a gas attendant fails to appear at their car window within 30 seconds of arrival on the gas island.

You've described a typical early-adopter / fanboy of whatever technology / new thing exists.   They want it and will make it work no matter what.    To them, they get to go on a Sunday drive in their newest and funnest toy!   Life is grand!    The mainstream wants a nice car and convenience and I heard that they might honk if inconvenienced!   😁

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Hands On Community Regular

Hands On

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I bought a Nissan Leaf. I love my little EV and do not miss the stops at the gas station. I am anxious to see what my first vehicle repair expense will be. 6 months in now, I have had to add washer fluid.  I installed a charger at my shop, so I drive to work and plug in. I can show up at 5% battery left and leave at 100% by the end of the day no problem. I let me service writer use it to drop off customers and run errands. I am saving over $600 a month in fuel, more then enough to cover the 3 year note on the car. It is faster then most ICE on the road, I love to floor it at every light. If the battery hits 50% capacity in 10 years I will still make my daily commute with out an issue. With the ~140 mile range, I have been able to leave the shop, run errands into the mountains, across towns, head home, and still have battery enough to make it back to work.

 

Stage 1 chargers are the 110 volt plug in, takes 12 to 16 hours to take my car from 5% to 100%  <-- I have this at home for emergencies.

Stage 2 chargers, the 220 volt consumer grade. Takes maybe 5-6 hours to go from 5% to 100%  <------- This is what I had installed at the shop, you can also find a few free ones in my area. There are free ones at the Stanley Hotel in Estes Park.

Stage 3 Super Chargers. These are the big boys that can charge you from 5% to 85% in 15 minutes. Charging past 85% on a super charger is not advised, and that last 15% can take longer then the first 80% These are what you use for road trips/ long day trips. They cost money, and sometimes have a wait time.

I think the most important thing is going to be technicians that are good with electronics. I imagine a good chunk of the repairs on these vehicles will have to do with the electronics.

I bought my leaf so we can play with it and learn what we might make money on. I have not put it up yet, but I want to see what fluids it may use, see what brake service looks like, ect. I figured best way to find the money in an EV is to own one for shop education purposes. Now I want another.

 

The only thing I think EV is not ready for yet is Towing.  Someone mentioned EV vs ICE and carbon footprint.  There are some studies out there that look at how long you have to drive the EV before you reach parity on carbon footprint to an ICE. Opinions vary between as little as 8k miles, to as much as 93k miles. Some of how long the parity takes is based on how your electricity is generated. My power at home comes from a hydro plant, so if I charge at home, I reach carbon parity very fast. I think my shop is fed from natural gas power, so that will take longer.  The real benefit shows once you reach and drive past that parity. Once the initial production carbon footprint is offset by the zero emissions of the car itself, your now lowering the over all carbon footprint of the vehicle over  the lifespan of the vehicle.

 

Solid state batteries are on the way which will help increase capacity and lower production carbon footprint. BMW sources components for their EV in a more humane way. For example, they use a brushed motor, instead of brush-less, which lowers the amount of (I think cobalt) that they need.

 

Regarding the original topic. I think, assuming your client list converts to EV at any significant rate, you will need 3 EV customers to replace one ICE customer. Just a rough guess, but I am assuming that EV will require about 33% of the work of an ICE.

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RYAN B Apprentice

RYAN B

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I don't know, we have about 30+ customers that have EV cars.  The vast majority are the complainers that don't want to spend money on there cars. The Teslas have been a good source of income, everything for them is SUPER expensive the eat tires up, we have seen third brake lights go bad, and some of those repairs are over $2000, and I am talking about cars that have less than 30000 miles.  One other piece of Information, most of these people say they would not buy another one! EV is coming, But the infastructure will not support it!    

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RYAN B Apprentice

RYAN B

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On the Teslas we have been seeing tires wearing out around 18000 to 20000 and they are special compounds, $$$.  We have seen third brake lights go bad when they are in the spoilers. Most people who buy these cars think they are Never going to need repairs. I had a customer bring me in a 22 Lucid to inspect it the other day, I asked them where are you going to take if something breaks?  They told me "What's going to break"?  There are no service facilities on the East Coast, People just don't think this stuff out. I had a customer broke down up the street, with her new Tesla, she kept calling us wondering why we couldn't help her, Tesla left her up there for like 4 1/2 hours and people with means don't like to wait!   

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