Predication at I-CAR: Technology eliminates collisions?

[Joe Marconi]

At the recent I-CAR conference in Boston, it was revealed by representatives from the NHTSA, The Insurance Institute for Safety and the Center for Automotive Research that there is a tidal wave of technology coming that will change the collision industry. By the year 2050, all cars on the road will have collision avoidance technology.

 

How will this affect the collision industry? Does this mean that will be no, or nearly no collisions in the future?

 

One thing is for sure; technology will change the entire auto repair and service industry. And it will happen sooner, not later.

 

[phynny]

Never really thought of this but it's very interesting. I have faith in morons so I personally believe we'll always find ways to crash cars =D

[Gonzo]

the technology is here already and I have no doubts that it will be common place in a decade or two. As cars of today age they soon will be scrap metal and likely not be around. I can't see anyone getting excited about restoring a car from this time period.

 

If the trend of high dollar components such as air bags and the like keeps rising. The insurance companies will probably push for crash avoidance as a standard feature, rather than the "air bag seperate policy" they've tried in the past.

 

And yes, the morons of the world will still have their time in drivers seat..LOL So..there's always a chance of some bent fenders.

 

My only question is... "Who are they marketing this technology too?" The hamburger flippers of the world are still going to be around, not every body is going to have the cash to purchase this technology. That is unless it becomes so cheap as they have done with the cel phone industry I just can't see it...but...it's going to happen whether we like it or not.

 

The reality of it all comes down to the "throw away" society issues. Will the cars of the 2050 era be throw away? WIll you even change a brake pad or just toss it aside for another ride? That's the real question.

 

Something to think about......................................................

[nmikmik]

Erosion of the middle class and not the technology that will have the biggest impact on our business imo.

Look at all the people that postpone major safety repairs and decline maintenance on both their cars and homes. Is it because they don't know or see that it's a necessity, no, most likely it's because they are in debt up to their noses and have other bills to pay.

Technology is moving faster and faster every minute, there is no stopping it. The only question, who is going to be able to afford the latest and greatest.

I suspect that some of the cars by 2050 will be an absolute technological marvel but most of the population will be either riding buses or other public transportation. The rest 10-15% will be either driving a trowaway car or maybe even sharing a car as a service rather than item they own.

[ATLAuto]

I suspect that some of the cars by 2050 will be an absolute technological marvel but most of the population will be either riding buses or other public transportation. The rest 10-15% will be either driving a trowaway car or maybe even sharing a car as a service rather than item they own.

 

Well said, Mike. I always look at Europe to see where our country is headed on various issues. Europe is dominated by trains, buses, and subways. I see no reason why our major cities will not be the same way in 35 years.

 

In regards to technology costs, look at how far we have come in just 10-20 years. Previously, cell phones and GPS satellite tracking were a military-only option. Well, military-only OR pay and arm and a leg for it. Now, everyone with a smart phone has tracking down to 3 meters for around $100/mo and can call anyone on the planet from wherever they are in America. Plus a TON of other incredible features. That is mind-boggling to me!! This is technology that went from 1% of the population to over 90% of the population in 10-20 quick years.

 

I see no reason why vehicles will not continue this trend. Sure, driverless vehicles are cost-prohibitive now and fairly untested. However, given 35 years and the exponential speed of technological innovation, I see no reason to argue this prediction.