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The Toolbox is Last to Leave, First is the Heart

By Joe Marconi in Joe's Blog
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It always amazes me when I hear about a technician who quits one repair shop to go work at another shop for less money. I know you have heard of this too, and you’ve probably asked yourself, “Can this be true? And Why?” The answer rests within the culture of the company. More specifically, the boss, manager, or a toxic work environment literally pushed the technician out the door.
While money and benefits tend to attract people to a company, it won’t keep them there. When a technician begins to look over the fence for greener grass, that is usually a sign that something is wrong within the workplace. It also means that his or her heart is probably already gone. If the issue is not resolved, no amount of money will keep that technician for the long term. The heart is always the first to leave. The last thing that leaves is the technician’s toolbox.
Shop owners: Focus more on employee retention than acquisition. This is not to say that you should not be constantly recruiting. You should. What it does means is that once you hire someone, your job isn’t over, that’s when it begins. Get to know your technicians. Build strong relationships. Have frequent one-on-ones. Engage in meaningful conversation. Find what truly motivates your technicians. You may be surprised that while money is a motivator, it’s usually not the prime motivator.
One last thing; the cost of technician turnover can be financially devastating. It also affects shop morale. Do all you can to create a workplace where technicians feel they are respected, recognized, and know that their work contributes to the overall success of the company. This will lead to improved morale and team spirit. Remember, when you see a technician’s toolbox rolling out of the bay on its way to another shop, the heart was most likely gone long before that.

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The Future of ICE, EVs, and eFuels [RR 881]
By carmcapriotto

Derek Kaufman, Managing Partner at Schwarz Advisors, discusses the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and the potential for alternative fuels to coexist with EVs. He explores the recent European Union's mandate to eliminate internal combustion engines by 2035 and the possibility of allowing fuels to keep ICE cars alive. The conversation then shifts to e-fuels, their production process, and the challenges of scaling up renewable electricity for their production. Both Derek and Carm emphasize the importance of finding a balanced approach that considers different solutions to address climate change.
Derek Kaufman, Managing Partner, Schwartz Advisors, President of C3 Network. Listen to Derek’s previous episodes HERE.
Show Notes
The European Union's Mandate and E-Fuels (00:01:19) Discussion about the European Union's mandate to eliminate the sale of internal combustion engines by 2035 and the potential of e-fuels to coexist with electric vehicles. Introduction to E-Fuels (00:02:39) Explanation of what e-fuels are, how they are derived, and their potential to act as a carbon-neutral replacement for gasoline. Challenges and Potential of E-Fuels (00:03:55) Discussion about the complications and costs associated with e-fuels, the need for renewable electricity to produce them, and the efforts to ramp up production through the E-Fuel Alliance. The transition to battery electric vehicles (00:08:50) Discussion on the increasing power demand for battery electric cars by 2050 and the need to transition the power grid to support electric vehicle usage. The potential for alternative fuels (00:10:05) Exploration of the role of low emission or carbon neutral fuels in coexisting with battery electric vehicles, particularly in heavy trucks and industrial equipment. The complementing technologies of batteries and internal combustion engines (00:12:00) Explanation of how batteries and internal combustion engines can work together in different applications, highlighting the importance of both technologies in the future of transportation. The transition to AI in automotive service (00:18:13) Discussion on the potential of AI and machine learning to assist in vehicle service procedures and the importance of having the right talent and training. The importance of human interface in automation (00:20:00) Comparison of two companies' customer service experiences during a power outage, highlighting the value of a personal connection and efficient communication. The future of AI in automotive service (00:22:21) Exploration of the possibility of combining AI solutions with human expertise to enhance customer service and improve efficiency in auto repair shops.
Thanks to our Partner, NAPA Auto Care

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Lang Marketing Predicts! ICE Vehicles will Long Dominate Aftermarket
By Joe Marconi

ICE Vehicles Will Long Dominate Aftermarket
"The media teems with reports of surging Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and how EVs will soon replace Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles. However, an examination of EV sales reveals a different picture and underscores the unlikelihood that EVs will displace ICE vehicles in the aftermarket any time soon."
"The U.S. vehicle population has a much larger segment of older cars and light trucks than any other country with a VIO (vehicles in operation) of comparable size. Accordingly, it will take many years (even decades) for EVs to have a significant impact on ICE aftermarket sales in the U.S."

EV Sales in the U.S.
The U.S. pace of new Electric Vehicle sales is lagging behind many other major countries. Sales of all types of EVs in the U.S. topped 780 thousand in 2022, less than 6% of the 13.8 million total new vehicle market, which suffered its weakest performance in over ten years.
After peaking at 361 thousand in 2018, EV sales in the U.S. shifted into reverse, falling to 318 million by 2020. In 2021, EV sales rallied to 546 thousand and reached a record-high level last year.

Differentiating EVs
Not all EVs are the same. The different EV powerplant configurations vary in their potential for disrupting the aftermarket. There are three types of Electric Vehicles: Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV).
HEVs and PHEVs are dual-powered, using an Internal Combustion Engine and Electric Motor, which work in cooperation. According, HEV and PHEV Electric Vehicles have a large portion of their miles powered by fossil fuel.

Focus on BEVs
In measuring the disruptive impact of Electric Vehicles on the aftermarket, it is best to focus on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), separating them from the other types of Electric Vehicles (HEVs and PHEVs), which significantly rely on gas engines.

Annual BEV Volume
The EV light vehicle market in the U.S. differs from total EV sales when BEVs are separated. From 2018 through 2022, all Electric Vehicles sales topped 2.3 million.
BEVs represented 1.7 million EV sales from 2018 through 2022, just over 76% of the total. Accordingly, BEVs generated only 2.2% of new car and light truck volume in the U.S. during these five years.

BEV Small VIO Impact
Battery Electric Vehicles represent an even smaller portion of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads. Between 2018 and 2021, BEVs climbed from about 0.3% to just over 0.6% of the nation’s VIO.
Record-high BEV sales in 2022 did not push their VIO share past 0.8%, only about one-third of their 2022 new vehicle market share.

Aftermarket Vehicles
Lang Marketing has developed the concept of Aftermarket Vehicles: cars and light trucks at least four years old. These vehicles generate over 95% of total aftermarket product volume, not including Tires and Accessories.
In 2022, BEVs represented less than 0.3% of Aftermarket Vehicles in the U.S. This underscores the significant time lag between the new sales share of EVs and their aftermarket impact.

BEV Aftermarket Impact
So far, Battery Electric Vehicles have replaced only a minuscule number of ICE vehicles at least four years old. Lang Marketing estimates that BEVs eliminated only about 0.3% of ICE aftermarket volume last year.

Aftermarket Sales of BEVs
BEVs do not share many operating components with ICE cars and light trucks. Nevertheless, BEVs still require aftermarket products, primarily Tires, Accessories, Batteries, and Electrical Components.

BEV Impact on Aftermarket by 2030
Lang Marketing estimates that less than 5% of ICE vehicle product volume (not including Tires and certain Accessories) will be eliminated by BEVs during 2030 compared to what it would have been without BEVs on the road.
ICE vehicles will record substantial aftermarket growth between 2022 and 2030. In fact, the annual rate of ICE aftermarket product growth between 2022 and 2030 will greatly outpace the “loss” of ICE volume due to BEVs during these eight years.

Six Major Takeaways
1.      New Electric Vehicle sales in the U.S. lag behind EV volume in foreign countries.
2.      To accurately measure the aftermarket impact of Electric Vehicles in the U.S., it is necessary to focus on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), the only EVs without an Internal Combustion Engine.
3.      The impact of EVs on the new car and light truck market in the U.S. is different when BEV vehicles are separated from total Electric Vehicle sales. Over the last five years, BEVs accounted for only 2.2% of the entire new car and light truck volume in the U.S.
4.      BEVs climbed from 0.3% of total cars and light trucks on U.S. roads in 2018 to about 0.8% by 2022. So far, Battery Electric Vehicles have replaced only a minuscule share of ICE vehicles at least four years old (Aftermarket Vehicles).
5.      Aftermarket Vehicles (cars and light trucks at least four years old) generate over 95% of total aftermarket product volume, other than Tires and Accessories. In 2022, BEVs represented less than 0.3% of Aftermarket Vehicles in the U.S.
6.      Lang Marketing estimates that ICE product volume (not including Tires and certain Accessories) will be reduced by less than 5% during 2030 compared to what it would have been without BEVs on the road. The annual rate of ICE vehicle product growth between 2022 and 2030 will greatly outpace the “loss” of ICE volume caused by BEVs during these eight years.
Fishing Season!
By autoguy

Looks like I am the first poster here... Outside the shop I enjoy fishing. Mostly fresh water, reservoirs. LG Bass mostly. Anyone here into fishing?

Once in a while I will go out on the ocean, charter boat mostly, and fish for blues and stripers. Looking forward to doing some fishing this year.
selling auto repairs is alot like fishing.
By Bob K

I've been thinking about the sale. Some days i have customers who wont or cant buy a wiper blade or an air filter. The next day the customer will buy anything i recommend. I just cant put my finger on it. I do however liken it to fishing. Some days the fish bite and some days they just dont. Doesn't matter what bait you use are how great your sales skills are. Some days they just wont buy. I sometimes feel like I have failed somehow those days. Then the next day i feel like a selling machine. What a roller coaster ride it can be. I would appreciate input from veteran shop owners on how to deal with the ups and downs. Thanks in advance. Bob
Fishing with Hand Grenades
By xrac

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdlKRcK3Nv8