Quantcast
Jump to content


[Podcast] Derek Kaufman on the Future of Battery Electric Drive Vehicles [RR 529]


Recommended Posts

For 40 years, Derek Kaufman has worked in the Transportation Industry with positions ranging from VP Marketing and Product Planning for Freightliner Trucks, SR VP of Sales, Marketing and Customer Support for Hino Trucks, President of Diesel Technology Co, a subsidiary of Penske Corporation, VP of Fixed Operations for Smart USA and CEO of Mission Motors Company.

Derek is also an entrepreneur. He founded C3 Network, LLC in 1997 to help clients launch new products in the transportation industry.

Today, Derek is a Managing Partner at Schwartz Advisors, LLC doing Mergers & Acquisition support and company growth work in the auto and heavy-duty aftermarket. He continues his role as President of C3 Network.

Derek serves on the boards of several companies and is a regular conference speaker at auto aftermarket and trucking conferences. Listen to Derek's previous episodes HERE.

Talking Points:

  • BEVs or Battery Electric Vehicles have only battery power – no engine at all
  • PHEVs are Plug-in Hybrids – they have battery packs that can be charged from the grid and have enough battery power to propel the vehicle for a certain number of miles before their internal combustion engine kicks in to keep the vehicle moving
  • Mild and Micro Hybrids – these are hybrid vehicles where the ICE engine drives an alternator to build up a battery pack. In mild hybrids, the motors can add power to the ICE power train. In micro hybrids like stop-start systems you have a battery that will drive a starter to bring the ICE engine back on after it stops to save fuel at an intersection.
  • In the USA, about 2.1% of our sales were full BEVs in 2019. To put that in perspective, the number one country in the world for BEV sales was Norway at 49% -- a strong market for Tesla
  • Number 2 was Iceland at 19%, then you fall down 8.2% for number 3 Sweden.
  • China is driving hard for BEVs but they were only at 4.2% last year.
  • It is interesting to note that if California was its own country – and lots of people would say it is – it would be right up with Sweden at over 8% BEV sales in 2019. If you go to San Diego, or sections of LA or the Bay Area – you would think that Tesla has a 30% market share – California is the epicenter of their sales.
  • Our estimate is that only .22% of cars in shops are BEVs today and that only grows to under 4% in the next ten years.
  • The European Union is all in on electric drive – and they are driving the market by imposing a 95 gram per kilometer CO2 emission limit on vehicle manufacturers.
  • You have everyone trying to sell cars in Europe rushing to add BEVs to their product lines even though the consumers in that market are continuing to buy high powered ICEs and even turning now to SUVs. So BEVs are going to be money-losing propositions for a lot of years for OEMs in Europe.The UK just announced a ban on ICE gas and diesel engines as of 2035 – that was pulled up from 2040
  • France has a ban slated for 2040 – but Paris is blocking ICE cars by 2030
  • China isn’t doing a nationwide ban but is talking about regional bans – and they are making it really difficult or impossible to build any new ICE production capacity in the country.
  • The US has been lagging other countries for a number of reasons – our geography makes the whole issue of battery range a tougher issue than in a lot of the European countries where you have less chance of even reaching a car’s range limitWe’re a light truck and SUV country – over 70% of new car sales are light trucks in this country so I think the adoption of BEVs will change once those vehicle designs include electric drive.
  • So we’re projecting a slower climb for the USA – the Schwartz Advisors model is showing 16% BEV sales by 2035.
  • Rivian as a true inflection point for BEVs in this country and maybe in the world.R.J. Scaringe in Detroit has done a tremendous job of attracting both people and investment for his company. He has people like Mark Vinnels the former director of engineering for McLaren and Jeff Hammoud who was the Chief Designer of the Jeep Cherokee and the new Wrangler – he has raised $2.85 billion dollars from companies like Amazon, Ford, Cox Automotive and T. Rowe Price – he bought the Mitsubishi assembly plant in Normal Illinois and is ramping up production now.
  • The Rivian design is unique too – both a pickup truck and an SUV and both are built on what is called a skateboard – that’s a platform that keeps the electric drive motors and battery very low on the frame which allows a lot of flexibility of what kind of body can be put on the chassis.
  • Amazon invests $700 million in Rivian and turns right around and orders 100,000 Amazon Prime delivery vans using the Rivian drive system.
  • Rivian is actually moving from aspirational to inspirational – they’re going to show how electric drive can take you off-road – or offer contractors electric-powered tools – they are going to make BEVs really multidimensional – and I think that will be a turning point.
  • Tesla has been brilliant at establishing the BEV as not only a viable product but as a truly desirable design – they have understood the aspirational approach of Tesla owners to make this world a better place.
  • Because of Covid19 Chinese companies will now have a harder time launching new products in the USA – but the Byton design is really interesting.Daniel Kirchet has a long history of running automotive companies in China – He was Managing Director of Infiniti China, President of Dongfeng and the VP of Sales of BMW Brilliance which is the China-based BMW production company – he is now running a company that is launching an SUV this year called the M-Byte – it is a beautiful car with a really good electric drive system 
  • JCI’s battery range included lithium-ion batteries for BEVs but the vast majority of their product line was associated with micro and mild hybrids – they spent a lot of time at conferences showing a chart that had hybrids taking over the market with BEVs representing under 15% of global production. But a few things could be changing that scenario.A series of breakthroughs in technology
  • New range estimates for the best BEVs are now over 400 miles
  • New fast chargers are building batteries up to 80% of a full charge in under 30 minutes – but there are many reports of graphene applications allowing much faster charging
  • If battery charging times begin to approach the time it takes to fill a gas tank, Derek say all bets are off on hybrid growth
  • At the end of the day, hybrids are expensive to produce for OEMs and may make it really hard for them to earn profits
  • Just one year ago, we were talking about vehicle manufacturers investing a combined $90B in BEV programs. The latest number is something like $300B led by Volkswagen
  • Tesla gets all the BEV headlines in the USA they have led the way for sure – but if you want to talk about scale, you need to talk about the VW MEB program.They have created a modular component platform called Modularer E-Antriebs Baukasten in German. Translate that to English as Modular Electric Propulsion Platform or MEB
  • Components can be mixed and matched to configure different vehicle form factors.
  • VW is licensing the technology to other OEMs. Ford, for example, will be using VW components in future BEVs.
  • VW is projecting 70 new BEV models to be introduced in the next 10 years with over 22 million vehicles produced in that time
  • But there are a lot of factors in figuring the well to wheel green house gas impact of various power sources. The BEV vehicle does not pollute as it idles, it doesn’t increase its emission level as it accelerates, it does not put out particulates that are a really big issue in urban centers.We really don’t talk about power sources and their relationship to climate change very consistently or accurately. 
  • If we really wanted to make every BEV a truly clean vehicle, we would be generating all power with the new nuclear power designs or maybe we would be converting faster to hydrogen fuel cells.
  • Hyundai, Honda, and Toyota have all developed hydrogen fuel cell designs and recently, BMW has announced a hydrogen vehicle. So maybe we should be shifting our percentage curves in that direction in the future

Resources:

  • Thanks to Derek Kaufman for his contribution to the aftermarket’s premier podcast.
  • Link to the ‘BOOKS‘ page highlighting all books discussed in the podcast library HERE. Leaders are readers.
  • Listen for free on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spreaker, iHeart Radio, Spotify, Podchaser and many more. Mobile Listening APP's HERE
  • Find every podcast episode HERE.
  • Every episode segmented by Series HERE.
  • Key Word Search HERE.
  • Love what we do? Buy Carm a cup of coffee HERE.

Be socially involved and in touch with the show:

Facebook   Twitter   Linked In   Email

Join the Ecosystem - Subscribe to the INSIDER NEWSLETTER HERE.

Buy Carm a Cup of Coffee 

Gold Certification recognizes top tier NAPA AutoCare's with a high level of participation in the AutoCare program. The program was built by AutoCare Centers for AutoCare Centers to provide a consistent consumer experience, maximize technology leverage, and reward NAPA’s most committed partners. In other words, Gold Certified AutoCare Centers are the standard-bearers for the AutoCare brand nationwide. Simply put, the Gold Certified NAPA AutoCare program, powered by your local shop brand, will separate you from the rest helping you boost your bay counts and your average repair orders.

Learn more about NAPA AutoCare, Gold Certification, and the hundreds of other benefits the NAPA family has to offer by talking with your servicing NAPA store or visit www.NAPAAutoCare.com

Click to go to the Podcast on Remarkable Results Radio

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Similar Topics

    • By carmcapriotto
      Kevin Syed, Owner of Integrity 1st Automotive, 8 Locations, Dallas Fort Worth TX, grew up with an entrepreneurial father and was always encouraged to lead. Having successfully earned a Bachelor’s degree in Business Management from University at Buffalo, Kevin went on to become a franchisee with Getty Petroleum / British Petroleum service centers for the better part of a decade in New York City. After gaining the knowledge, experience, and funding required to produce his own operation, Kevin went on to operate his own independent shops in New York. Kevin sought to find a new place to call home with his wife and twin girls; he longed for the community values and environment of the South and so his family made the decision to move to Texas. Integrity 1st Automotive was then born in Texas and Kevin has scaled his business to multiple locations across the Dallas Fort-Worth Metroplex. When he’s not working, Kevin enjoys local car rallies (e.g. Lamborghini Club Dallas), traveling, and hunting. Listen to Kevin's other Episodes HERE
      Carl Hutchinson, Owner, Complete Automotive, 2 locations, Springfield, MO has been in the car industry since 1982, but has worked on vehicles long before that time. He has a passion for engineering, for understanding how vehicles operate, and how to repair a customer’s concern. Earlier in his career, Carl started working at a GM Dealership, then went to work at independent repair facilities as a technician and eventually became a service advisor. Carl’s experience in the automotive industry led him to his current position as co-owner with Maureen Hutchinson of Complete Automotive in Springfield MO., where he works every day to provide high-quality, valuable service to all customers. Carl is an Alumni with Ozarks Technical Community College, Springfield MO Campus. He currently sits on the Automotive Advisory Board with Ozark Technical Community College, a member of South East Rotary, and a member of the Springfield Midwest Auto Care Alliance chapter. Carl has his Master ASE Certification, L1 and Service Advisor certification and is an AMI Graduate. Listen to Carl’s previous episodes HERE Kenny Wedow, Owner, Fine Tuned Auto, 2 Locations, Broomfield and Erie CO  knows cars. A natural talent even at the young age of 17, he pursued it auto repair in shop classes in school then slipped right into the work field. Working for dealerships such as Saturn, and Nissan, as well as other independent shops, has afforded Wedow with extensive and well-rounded education. More importantly, before Wedow branched off to open the doors of Fine Tuned Auto in 2013, he already learned the importance of patient diligence. Many dealerships and independent auto shops can default to make generalizations about the problems with your car, sometimes not always seeing the things that really might put you in danger on the road. The patience Wedow has to pull everything apart if need be to find the root answers makes him unique in his field. It is a quality that got him promoted to foreman at a Nissan dealership when he was only twenty-three. It wasn’t that the six technicians under him weren’t experienced, in fact, some of them had worked considerably longer than Wedow. However, his attention to detail and follow-through put him above and beyond. Listen to Kenny's other episodes HERE
      Key Talking Points
      Building Trust- Focus on relationships, not transactions. Reviews, book of business, referrals etc. People always like to try something new, wow them. Make customers feel better- don’t fake it. Location Location Location- be selective. Walk-ins at an easy location will increase with oil changes etc. First chance to gain customers for life.  First impression marketing- Kenny uses poker chips with his information to attract new customers. Signage, uniforms, customer waiting area etc elevate the professionalism. The image plays a huge role in sales, female-friendly bathroom/lobby, cleanliness, smell in the waiting lobby, convenience etc. Be mindful of female customers, educate and simplify.  Direct mail, google ads, geofencing- who is your clientele? What advertisement is right for your area? Once you have multiple growing businesses- what is your year after year retention?  Why do people choose certain careers/trades? What is the reason? Look at different industries and see what they provide.  Focus on the relationship, not the transaction   Be involved in the community Connect with the show:
      Aftermarket Radio Network
      Subscribe on YouTube
      Visit us on the Web
      Follow on Facebook
      Become an Insider
      Buy me a coffee
      Important Books
      Check out today's partners:

      This episode is brought to you by Shop-Ware Shop Management. It’s time to run your business at its fullest potential with the industry’s leading technology. Shop-Ware Shop Management will increase your efficiency with lightning-fast workflows, help your staff capture more sales every day, and create very happy customers who promote your business. Shops running Shop-Ware have More Time and generate More Profit—join them! Schedule a free live demonstration and find out how 30 minutes can transform your shop at getshopware.com

      Are you seeing auto shops in your area get hundreds of 5-star Google reviews and are you feeling left behind because your shop only has a few?
      Hey look, Broadly is your answer to getting more online reviews. With more reviews, your business will rank higher in search results — and that means more customers coming into your shop every day. Broadly helps you automatically request reviews so that your customers can promote your business with just one click. When you immediately ask for a review after service, when the experience is still fresh in their mind, you’re more likely to get a 5-star positive review. Plus, asking for feedback makes your customer feel valued and more connected to your business. Isn’t that what you want a connected customer? See how Broadly can help grow your auto shop.  Visit www.getbroadly.com/chat to learn more.
      Click to go to the Podcast on Remarkable Results Radio
    • By champtires
      Champtires – one of the leading e-commerce used tire sellers – is not facing supply chain issues. In fact, over the past several months, Champtires’ inventory has grown exponentially.
      “Luckily, we are still able to source really great tires right now,” said Brad Rea, president and founder of Champtires. “Ninety percent of our inventory has 7/32 tread or above, and we’re adding hundreds of Michelins, Pirellis, Continentals – tires in every brand really – every day.”
      Reselling used tires with significant tread life left saves them from ending up in a landfill. And it allows consumers and auto businesses to save drastically compared to new tire prices.
      “Relying on premium used tires is a responsible way to use recycled products while saving yourself a lot of money,” Rea said.
      High quality used tires are perfect if you need to match one or two to a remaining set or when replacing all four tires. Every tire that enters a Champtires facility goes through a thorough three-step inspection process. Free FedEx shipping is included on all website orders to the continental U.S.
      Learn more and shop now at Champtires.com.
    • By Jonathan Ganther
      Hey guys. I'm new to the forum and was looking for this subject but couldn't find it. Sorry If I'm posted something that's already been discussed. I own a brake shop in Austin, TX. We do anywhere from 10-20 brake jobs a day. We only do brakes so I don't know how much full service auto shops deal with this problem but... Customers are constantly calling in claiming they've bought the best parts or they want to provide their own parts because they've done research and know what is best. This drives me crazy. First of all they don't know whats best. Then after being told no they get offended and act like tons of shops allow this. What is the best way to handle these customers? Just send them away? I'll quote them a price using our parts and they act as though its a rip off. What shops are doing this for their customers? I feel like I'm letting jobs get away from me. Any experience with this?
    • By ASOG Podcast
      ASOG Podcast LIVE from TOOLS 2021 - Adam Rath on Leadership
    • By ASOG Podcast
      ASOG Podcast LIVE from TOOLS 2021 - Bret Fadely & Adam Rath


  • Our Sponsors



×
×
  • Create New...