What are Your Predications For 2023?

[Joe Marconi]

What are your predictions for 2023? Will it be that we will face an economic downturn?  Will EVs increase market share?  Will the tech shortage get worse or better?  

[DUFRESNES]

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[Joe Marconi]

Qualified techs are in demand and demand high pay. Cant blame them. As shop owners, it is crucial that we know our numbers and adjust for the higher payrolls. And all shops need to do this. The days of undercutting your labor rate must end.

Let's face it, in general we have been too cheap for too long. 

 

[bantar]

29 minutes ago, DUFRESNES said:

Hiring employees has become brutal..    I have a B tech stole away for a guarantee of $35.00 not depending on work.  Also A tech being promising $50 guarantee. What do  you guys think?

Indeed it is brutal.   I'm swinging hard for good candidates.   I was looking for an A Tech and one came in that we liked.    We hired him at $130K.  My other A tech is over $50/hr too.  We're in the Dallas area, with an overall medium cost of living, so these guys are doing well.  They are our revenue producers, so we need them.   The opportunity cost of going without someone for 2 months is higher than paying someone more.   I have an offer out to a B tech for $30/hr + $7/flag hour.  He should make $35 or more.   My previous A tech quit and says he's going to buy, fix and sell cars from his house.  My B tech moved to NC to be with his family.    So, hiring became critical all of a sudden.

I just raised my labor rate to $170/hr (from $150/hr), but I may need to bump it again soon.   My main focus for improvement this year is correctly billing for labor hours.   We are slowly getting better, but still not great.   

We're definitely going to see a downturn in the economy.   With the rising prices of rent, groceries, gas and everything, it's tapping people out.    I don't know how it will play out, but we'll likely see more cars get fixed than traded in.

[Ambrose You]

Long time no see! I wish everyone a smooth and successful year in 2023!
As a manufacturer of replacement switches, I also want to share my thoughts on this topic.
From my perspective, 2023 is a challenging year for both the manufacturing and service industries. The shortage of labor caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the escalating tensions between the United States and China and the war between Ukraine and Russia, have directly caused a rise in costs by impacting the supply chain. The downturn of the stock and housing markets has also indirectly led to a reduction in consumer spending.
As Asia is currently the main manufacturing center, we are facing a severe round of layoffs, with the exception of Vietnam and India which have benefited from supply chain shift.
Our factory is facing a situation where customer orders are expected to decrease by 20%, and our production capacity has already been reduced by 40% in 2022. I feel that, as an Asian manufacturing center, we are facing a severe round of layoffs. I also have the idea of moving the factory to Mexico.
Anyway, we have to move forward bravely in the future. This year may be a difficult one, but let's cheer up together!
And, since a large part of our products are classic car parts, if you have spare time, fix up an old car! Think about the road trips of the past, and make your classic car great again!
I am currently studying AI-related applications, this article is basically translated by openai, and the picture below is generated by Midjourney by inputting text.

[Joe Marconi]

21 hours ago, Ambrose You said:

Long time no see! I wish everyone a smooth and successful year in 2023!
As a manufacturer of replacement switches, I also want to share my thoughts on this topic.
From my perspective, 2023 is a challenging year for both the manufacturing and service industries. The shortage of labor caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the escalating tensions between the United States and China and the war between Ukraine and Russia, have directly caused a rise in costs by impacting the supply chain. The downturn of the stock and housing markets has also indirectly led to a reduction in consumer spending.
As Asia is currently the main manufacturing center, we are facing a severe round of layoffs, with the exception of Vietnam and India which have benefited from supply chain shift.
Our factory is facing a situation where customer orders are expected to decrease by 20%, and our production capacity has already been reduced by 40% in 2022. I feel that, as an Asian manufacturing center, we are facing a severe round of layoffs. I also have the idea of moving the factory to Mexico.
Anyway, we have to move forward bravely in the future. This year may be a difficult one, but let's cheer up together!
And, since a large part of our products are classic car parts, if you have spare time, fix up an old car! Think about the road trips of the past, and make your classic car great again!
I am currently studying AI-related applications, this article is basically translated by openai, and the picture below is generated by Midjourney by inputting text.

Wow, fascinating how those images were generated, and thanks for your take on the future.   And sad to admit I worked on those cars! Years back! 

Question, do you think the auto repair business is as "recession-proof" as people claim it is? 

[bantar]

On 1/12/2023 at 9:58 PM, Joe Marconi said:

And sad to admit I worked on those cars

Bah-humbug.  Those cars were great money makers for your shop, but maybe before you truly figured out that 4-letter word:  Profit.   We all work on piles of junk from time to time.  Like that hunk-o-junk in my shop right now:  2015 Range Rover with a blown head-gasket.  Customer says that we blew her head gasket, not here driving it while overheating!  LOL   Besides, all the folks in that picture are happy with their cars.  Now, don't call their babies ugly!  😁

[Joe Marconi]

4 minutes ago, bantar said:

Bah-humbug.  Those cars were great money makers for your shop, but maybe before you truly figured out that 4-letter word:  Profit.   We all work on piles of junk from time to time.  Like that hunk-o-junk in my shop right now:  2015 Range Rover with a blown head-gasket.  Customer says that we blew her head gasket, not here driving it while overheating!  LOL   Besides, all the folks in that picture are happy with their cars.  Now, don't call their babies ugly!  😁

You are 1000000% correct!  I was really referring to my age. Those cars broke down a lot back then, and we did capitalize on it. 

[Transmission Repair]

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